Polls

Gallup Daily: U.S. Workforce
Each result is based on a 30-day rolling average
Gallup’s employment measures report the percentage of Americans who are employed and underemployed. “Employed” respondents are either employed full time or working part time but do not want to work full time. “Underemployed” respondents are employed part time, but want to work full time, or they are unemployed. Results for each 30-day rolling average are based on telephone interviews with approximately 19,800 adults; Margin of error is ± 0.7 percentage points.

The Rothenberg Political Report

Friday, February 26, 2010

Would Reconciliation for Health Care Affect Midterm Elections?

By Stuart Rothenberg

Democrats have plenty of reasons to try to pass health care reform through the Senate using reconciliation to avoid the need for a 60-vote majority. But using the process would constitute a risky roll of the dice for party leaders.

Democratic strategists clearly understand the importance of passing some sort of health care reform bill before November, and they aren’t at all optimistic about working with Republicans from scratch on a new measure. Their view, right or wrong, is that Republicans aren’t serious about working on a bipartisan measure.

Given that, reconciliation could be the only way for Democrats — and for the president — to pass a bill that they desperately need in order to deliver on a key campaign promise.

Using reconciliation to circumvent unified Republican opposition would generate applause on the left, and especially with Democrats who have complained that party leaders have placed too high a priority on reaching out to Republicans and not enough on passing reform that the Democratic base wants.

Democratic enthusiasm has been a problem at the grass roots (at least compared with the GOP), so a confrontation with Republicans over reconciliation and passage of a reform bill would almost certainly energize Democrats (assuming, of course, that the grass roots were pleased with the final bill). That could close the enthusiasm gap that separates the two parties going into the midterm elections.

One GOP strategist I talked with argued that Democrats have already been damaged by the health care reform debate, and using reconciliation would not make things that much worse for the president’s party.

Passing any health care reform bill could lead to a quick uptick in overall public sentiment, since some of the negativity about Congress and about the direction of the country stems from Washington’s inability to address the nation’s toughest problems.

But while using the reconciliation process could help Democrats deliver on their promise, it could also give Republicans yet another arrow in the party’s already well-stocked quiver.

While Republican legislators and their talking-head allies would be sure to bash the substance of the proposal — just as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.) did on Monday in his press release, criticizing “another partisan, back-room bill that slashes Medicare for our seniors, raises a half-trillion in new taxes, fines them if they don’t buy the right insurance and further expands the role of government” — they also would be able to attack Democrats for how they passed the measure.

I recently spoke with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, a veteran of the health care wars, about the danger Democrats face using reconciliation to pass health care reform, and he thinks the tactic would be a gamble for Democrats.

“Process issues usually don’t matter,” acknowledged McInturff, before noting that this time things could be different.

“People have a stunning amount of information about the fight over health care reform and Democratic efforts to pass a bill. There is the perception that there have been backroom deals — with Senators from Louisiana and Nebraska, and with labor unions — to get support for a bill that isn’t to the public’s advantage.”

“People have come to the conclusion that it must be a bad bill, since if it were a good one, Democratic leaders wouldn’t have had to do what they did to get the votes to pass it,” McInturff continued.

“Using reconciliation could reinforce the view that Democrats are trying to pass a flawed bill, so they are having to use an unusual procedure to pass it.”

McInturff is quick to point out that Republicans would have to put reconciliation into “the broader narrative,” arguing that it is because the bill is “deeply flawed” that Democrats can’t use “ordinary means” to pass it through Congress.

In fact, the GOP pollster notes, the White House’s decision to jettison the special deals that Democratic Senate leaders used to round up 60 votes to pass the Senate’s version of health care reform demonstrates that the White House understands just how “toxic” the special deals with Sens. Mary Landrieu (La.) and Ben Nelson (Neb.) were.

Finally, McInturff adds that the “tone and tenor” of Republican opposition is important and that showing respect for the president is absolutely crucial. And he warns that GOP Senators shouldn’t get drawn into an argument about the process of reconciliation — which has been used by Republican presidents — but should stress the flaws of the Democratic bill and Democrats’ need to use an unusual process to pass it.

If McInturff is correct, and I believe he is, Democrats would face an uncomfortable trade-off. They could try to pass a bill they desperately want and one that would please base voters. But in doing so, they would give Republicans more ammunition to use against them, possibly solidifying the GOP’s hold on independents and swing voters.

Failure to pass a health care bill is the single worst outcome possible for Democrats. Unfortunately for party leaders, passing a bill using reconciliation looks like a very close second.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and CQPolitics.com on February 25, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved.

Rasmussen Reports

February 26, 2010

Follow the links for the reports.

• 50% See China As Long-Term Threat To U.S.
• Only 30% Have Filed Income Taxes So Far
• 29% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction
• 51% Fear Government More Than Private Health Insurers
• 50% Now Say U.S. Is Winning War on Terror
• 71% Give Congress Poor Rating
• Texas GOP Primary: Perry 48%, Hutchison 27%, Medina 16%
• Texas Governor: Perry, Hutchison Still Lead White
• 41% Favor Obama’s Health Care Plan, 56% Oppose
• BY THE NUMBERS

• 29% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction
• 50% Now Say U.S. Is Winning War on Terror
• 71% Give Congress Poor Rating
• Generic Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 35%
• 28% Say U.S. Heading In Right Direction
• Republicans Lead Democrats by Nine in Generic Ballot

• 50% See China As Long-Term Threat To U.S.
• 47% Oppose Public Option Health Plan; 58% Oppose If Workers Forced To Change Coverage
• 51% Fear Government More Than Private Health Insurers
• 41% Favor Obama’s Health Care Plan, 56% Oppose
• 47% Believe U.S. Can Win in Afghanistan
• 49% Favor Building New Nuclear Plants
• 29% Say U.S. Should Go It Alone Against Iran

The Polls

February 24, 2010 P.M.

Gallup Poll

Nearly 6 in 10 Americans (57%) now say they are spending less money than they used to, and 38% say this reduced spending will be their new, normal spending pattern. In a marked shift from earlier this decade, 62% of Americans now say they more enjoy saving rather than spending, while 35% say the reverse.

Read more at GALLUP.com.

The Polls

February 25, 2010

Rasmussen Reports

War on Terror Update

50% Now Say U.S. Is Winning War on Terror

Wednesday, February 24, 2010

Voter confidence in America’s conduct of the War on Terror has reached its highest level since last May.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 50% of likely voters now believe the United States and its allies are winning the War on Terror, up 12 points from last month and 14 points from late December.

Only 21% now believe the terrorists hold the advantage, down 10 points from January and the lowest level measured since last August. Another 21% say neither side is winning, a figure that has held relatively steady over the past several years.

Democrats are slightly more confident in U.S. efforts in the war, with 54% who believe the United States and its allies are winning. A month ago, just 41% of Democrats felt that way. Forty-eight percent (48%) of Republicans and 46% of those not affiliated with either party agree.

However, a separate survey finds that despite a highly publicized and thus far successful U.S. offensive against Taliban forces now taking place in Afghanistan, just 47% of voters believe it is possible for the United States to win the war there. That’s down from 51% in early December.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Still, just 35% of voters now expect the situation in Afghanistan to get worse over the next six months, down 11 points over the past month. That’s also the lowest level of pessimism measured since regular tracking on this question began last June. One-in-three voters (33%) believe the situation will get better, up 12 points from January. Another 24% say the situation will be about the same in six months time.

Confidence among voters also jumped this month when it comes to U.S. efforts in Iraq. The plurality (45%) now expects the situation in Iraq to get better in the next six months, up 16 points over the past month and the highest level measured in a year. Just 22% think the situation will get worse and another 26% don’t expect much change.

When it comes to the safety of the United States, though, voters are still a bit uneasy. Just 39% believe the United States today is safer than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, up three points from last month. Forty-three percent (43%) say America is not safer today. Eighteen percent (18%) are not sure.

Iran remains the top threat to U.S. national security according to voters, with 35% who feel that way. That’s up five points from January and is the highest level measured yet.

With China still blocking UN efforts to impose meaningful sanctions on Iran, 29% of U.S. voters now think the United States should take action alone against the rogue Islamic nation.

Nineteen percent (19%) see China as the greater threat to U.S. national security, while 14% say that of North Korea. Just six percent (6%) see Afghanistan as the biggest national security threat, and the same number say that of Pakistan.

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Election 2010: Delaware Senate

Delaware Senate: Castle 53%, Coons 32%

Thursday, February 25, 2010

Now it’s official: There’s an announced Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in Delaware, but, as party leaders feared, he has a long way to go.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in Delaware shows Republican Mike Castle leading Democrat Chris Coons by 21 points, 53% to 32%. Eight percent (8%) prefer some other candidate, and another eight percent (8%) are undecided.

A month ago, just after state Attorney General Beau Biden’s surprise decision not to enter the Senate race, Castle led Coons in a hypothetical match-up 56% to 27%. Last October, Castle led Biden 47% to 42% in an earlier hypothetical contest for the seat Biden’s father, now the vice president, held for 36 years.

Ted Kaufman, appointed by the governor to the elder Biden’s seat following the November 2008 election, is not seeking a full Senate term. Despite Delaware’s shift in recent years into the Democratic column, the decision by Beau Biden not to run has many analysts now viewing the Delaware seat as a likely Republican pick-up, especially given the national political mood and the strength of Castle, a popular longtime congressman.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Castle carries the male vote two-to-one and leads among female voters by 14 points. Voters not affiliated with either major party prefer the Republican by a whopping 69% to 12% margin.

Thus far, Castle’s longtime tenure in Washington doesn’t seem to be hurting him as it has many incumbents. Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters now think Congress is doing a poor job, the highest negative rating ever recorded in Rasmussen Reports surveys.

Rasmussen Reports also has recently surveyed Senate races in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Florida, Connecticut, Pennyslvania, Ohio, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. Most show a troubling political environment for the Democratic candidates.

On the Republican side, Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison also seems to be hurt by the national political mood in her bid to defeat incumbent Governor Rick Perry for the GOP gubernatorial nomination in Texas. Even Georgia Senator Johnny Isakson, who has no serious Democratic opposition to date, falls just under 50% which means he is potentially vulnerable in November.

Twenty-three percent (23%) of Delaware voters now have a very favorable opinion of Castle, while 10% view him very unfavorably.

For Coons, a county executive who has not previously sought a statewide office, very favorables total nine percent (9%) and very unfavorables eight percent (8%). But 22% of voters in the state don’t know enough about Coons to offer even a soft favorable or unfavorable view of him.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Delaware voters rate their own finances as good or excellent. Sixteen percent (16%) say their personal finances are poor. Yet while 18% say those finances are getting better, only half the voters (51%) in the state say they are getting worse.

Barack Obama won 62% of the vote in Delaware in 2008. Now 51% of Delaware voters approve of the job he is doing as president, with 31% who strongly approve. Forty-eight percent (48%) disapprove of his job performance, including 37% who strongly disapprove. Still, this gives Obama a higher job approval rating in Delaware than he earns nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Fifty percent (50%) of voters in the state believe it is possible to balance the federal budget without a tax increase, Thirty percent (30%) disagree.

Fifty-one percent (51%) favor an across-the-board tax cut for all Americans, an idea that’s opposed by 33%. But 56% say cutting taxes is a better way to create jobs than raising government spending. Only 17% see increased government spending as a better job creator.

Delaware voters are even more optimistic about the war on terror than voters nationally. Fifty-five percent (55%) in the state say the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror. Just 16% say the terrorists are ahead.

Forty-three percent (43%) believe America is safer today than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, but 34% don’t share that assessment.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters in Delaware trust the judgment of the American people more than that of the country’s political leaders when it comes to important national issues.

Seventy-three percent (73%) think the federal government has become a special interest group, and 72% say the government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

Marking little change from last month and the survey in October, 61% approve of Democratic Governor Jack Markell’s job performance, while 37% disapprove.

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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Georgia Senate: Isakson 49%, Generic Democrat 36%

Video: Only 12% Expect U.S. – Muslim Relations To Be Better A Year From Now

29% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Americans Can Speak for Themselves on Health Care: A Commentary by Froma Harrop

Follow Rasmussen Reports on Twitter or Facebook

Jerry Brown Flies Below the Radar: A Commentary By Debra J. Saunders

Obama’s Nanny Care Insults the American Spirit: A Commentary by Michael Barone

Gallup Poll

Americans doubt lawmakers will agree on a new healthcare bill at Thursday’s bipartisan summit. Without a deal, Americans lean against Congress passing a bill similar to the one President Obama (49% to 42%) proposed and oppose Democrats trying to side step a Republican filibuster (52% to 39%).

Read more at GALLUP.com.

Rothenberg Political Report

“KY Senate: Grayson Readies Second TV Ad Against Paul” from “The Rothenberg Political Report”

KY Senate: Grayson Readies Second TV Ad Against Paul

By Stuart Rothenberg

A new Trey Grayson TV spot scheduled to air starting tomorrow, Friday, in the Fort Campbell and Fort Knox areas continues the Kentucky Secretary of State’s targeted campaign against GOP primary opponent Rand Paul.

The new ad, which follows an ad in Eastern Kentucky criticizing Paul’s position on coal, targets Paul’s stance on national security.

“On national defense, there are big differences between Rand Paul and me,” says Grayson in the spot, produced by veteran media consultant Larry McCarthy.

The ad charges that Paul “opposes the war in Iraq” and “doubts whether Afghanistan is still a threat,” and it includes video of Paul talking about the need to cut “some of what we are doing militarily to balance the budget.”

“I’ll work to balance the budget without putting our security at risk,” says Grayson at the end of the 30-second spot.

Grayson has begun his media campaign with a series of target ads, first on conservative radio, then the coal TV ad in Eastern Kentucky and, most recently, an ad on Christian radio addressing Paul’s position on abortion.

“We are going to tell people what Rand Paul believes. There is a lot of videotape out there,” says McCarthy, one of the best ad makers in the business.

A recently released Magellan Data and Mapping Strategies poll shows Rand Paul leading Grayson by 21 points, but Magellan was forced to issue a public apology for not including other announced candidates in the survey, and while the firm has experience in targeting, it has no reputation as a pollster.

In fact, other polling, which has not been released, suggests that the GOP primary is very close, with Paul holding a narrow edge at the margin of error.

Gallup Poll

February 23, 2010

Gallup Daily tracking reveals that 19.9% of Americans were underemployed in January, and this group reported spending 36% less on average than employed Americans. The two groups also differ in terms of attitudes toward money, access to healthcare, demographics, and wellbeing.

Read more at GALLUP.com.

Among Americans who are underemployed, 61% are not hopeful they will find a job in the next month while 39% are hopeful. Hopeful and not hopeful job seekers differ on a number of key indicators, including demographics and attitudes toward money.

Read more at GALLUP.com.

Rasmussen Reports

February 23, 2010

Election 2010: Florida Senate

Florida Senate: Meek Still A Distant Second to Crist, Rubio

Tuesday, February 23, 2010

While Charlie Crist and Marco Rubio battle it out for the Republican Senate nomination in Florida, one thing is unchanged for now: Regardless of which GOP candidate emerges, the likely Democratic Senate nominee, Congressman Kendrick Meek, has a long way to go.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state shows Meek trailing Crist by 16 points and Rubio by 20 in general election match-ups, margins that are virtually unchanged from a month ago.

While Crist, the state’s current governor, trails Rubio by the widest margin yet among Republican voters, he leads Meek 48% to 32%. Eleven percent (11%) prefer some other candidate, and nine percent (9%) are undecided.

Rubio now holds a 51% to 31% lead over Meek. Seven percent (7%) like another candidate, and 11% remain undecided.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

The candidates are running for the seat originally vacated by GOP Senator Mel Martinez. Last August, Crist as governor named his chief of staff, George LeMiuex, to serve the remainder of Martinez’s term, but LeMieux is not running for a full term.

Meek’s numbers have been stalled in the low 30s for months, suggesting that he is still feeling the backlash like many Democratic candidates nationally from voter unhappiness with the bad economy and the national health care plan.

Thirty-six percent (36%) of Florida voters currently describe their personal finances as good or excellent, while 21% say their finances are poor. But 50% expect their own finances to get worse versus 16% who say they’ll get better.

While Barack Obama carried Florida with 51% of the vote in the 20087 election, just 45% of voters in the state approve of his performance as president, with 31% who strongly approve. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove of the job he is doing, including 44% who strongly disapprove. This marks a slight improvement for the president from a month ago and is now roughly comparable to his overall job approval ratings nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Both Republican hopefuls carry male voters by sizable majorities against Meek but win women by much smaller margins. Voters not affiliated with either major political party prefer the GOP candidates by roughly 30 points.

Fourteen percent (14%) of all Florida voters have a very favorable opinion of Meek, while 13% view him very unfavorably.

Crist is viewed very favorably by 14% and very unfavorably by 12%.

For Rubio, a former speaker of the Florida House, very favorables total 25% and very unfavorables 12%.

Just five percent of voters in the state have no opinion of Crist, while roughly one-in-four don’t know enough about Meek or Rubio to venture even a soft favorable or unfavorable view of them.

At this early stage of the campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the very favorable and very unfavorable figures more significant than the overall favorability totals.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Florida voters approve of the job Crist is doing as governor, with 15% who strongly approve. Forty-five percent (45%) disapprove of his performance as governor, including 15% who strongly disapprove.

When it comes to national issues, 46% of the state’s voters say it is possible to balance the federal budget without raising taxes, but 32% disagree. Fifty-one percent (51%) favor an across-the-board tax cut for all Americans. Thirty-four percent (34%0 are opposed.

Fifty-seven percent (57%) believe cutting taxes is a better way to create jobs that increased government spending. Just 14% say increasing government spending is a better job-creator.

Slightly more optimistic than many of their fellow Americans, 52% of Florida voters think the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror. Twenty percent (20%) say the terrorists are winning.

Forty-three percent (43%) in Florida say the United States is safer today than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks, but 38% disagree.

When it comes to important national issues, 73% trust the judgment of the American people more than that of the country’s political leavers. Ten percent (10%) trust the leaders’ judgment more.

Seventy-four percent (74%) say the federal government has become a special interest group, while 70% think government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

In 2008, Rasmussen Reports projected nationally that Obama would defeat John McCain by a 52% to 46% margin. Obama won 53% to 46%. Four years earlier, Rasmussen Reports projected the national vote totals for both George W. Bush and John Kerry within half-a-percentage-point.

In Florida, the final Rasmussen Reports 2008 poll showed a toss-up with John McCain 50% of the vote and Barack Obama with 49%. Obama won the state 51% to 49%. In 2004, the final Rasmussen Reports poll showed George W. Bush leading John Kerry 50% to 47%. Bush won 52% to 47%.

In the 2006 race for U.S. Senate, Rasmussen polling showed Bill Nelson defeating Katherine Harris 54% to 37%. Nelson won 60% to 38%. In the Governor’s race that year, the final Rasmussen poll showed Charlie Crist with an eight-point advantage over Jim Davis, 50% to 42%. Crist won by seven, 52% to 45%.

In the 2004 Senate race, Rasmussen polling showed Mel Martinez leading 49% to 47% over Betty Castor. Martinez won 49% to 48%.

See all Rasmussen Reports 2008 state results for president, Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor. See 2004 state results for president.

Rasmussen Reports also has recently surveyed Senate races in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Florida, Connecticut, Pennyslvania, Ohio, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. Most show a troubling political environment for the Democratic candidates.

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74% Say Tiger Woods Likely To Play Again This Year

Monday, February 22, 2010

Most Americans expect Tiger Woods to be playing professional golf again this year, although they still have mixed feelings abut the sincerity of his apology.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 74% of adults think it is at least somewhat likely that Woods will return this year to the sport that he has dominated for several years now. That number includes 46% who say Woods’ return is very likely.

Just 14% sat Woods is not very or not at all likely to return to the game professionally this year. Twelve percent (12%) more are not sure.

Woods made his first public appearance in three months Friday to apologize again for his marital infidelities, and the plurality of adults (41%) believe his apology was sincere. Twenty-eight percent (28%) say his apology was not sincere, and another 31% are not sure.

Adults feel the same way about Woods’ latest apology as they did about the initial one he published on his website in December. At that time, 43% saw his written apology as sincere, while 25% did not.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Men are much more likely than women to believe Woods was being sincere in his latest apology. Black Americans are more than twice as likely as white adults to believe him. Married and non-married adults share similar views on the matter.

Americans’ opinions of the troubled athlete remain unchanged following Friday’s statement. Thirty-six percent (36%) of adults view Woods at least somewhat favorably, showing no change from mid-December. Most adults (51%) view the pro golfer unfavorably, up slightly from the previous survey.

Soon after the Thanksgiving car accident that ultimately led to public awareness of his secret behavior, Woods’ favorables were still at 56% But just one week later, with new allegations coming to light almost daily, his favorability rating was down to 38%.

In 2007, 83% of Americans held a favorable opinion of Woods.

Regardless of how Americans view the golfer, 89% think the media is focusing too much on the story, up nine points from early December. Just eight percent (8%) believe the media coverage has been about right, while virtually no one thinks the media has provided too little coverage of the scandal.

It appears that interest in the Woods saga was not revived by Friday’s press conference. Only 36% of adults now say they are following stories on Woods at least somewhat closely, down from 44% in mid-December. Sixty-three percent (63%) say they are not following the story closely, if at all, up seven points over the past two months.

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Georgia Governor: Top GOP Contenders Slightly Ahead of Democrats’ Barnes

Iowa Senate: Grassley Still Outdistances Democratic Challengers

Iowa Governor: Culver Trails in Re-election Bid

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Only 9% Say Most in Congress Interested in Helping People (video)

The Rothenberg Political Report

February 23, 2010

“What Do Voters Want? Legislators or Ideological Voting Machines?” from “The Rothenberg Political Report”

What Do Voters Want? Legislators or Ideological Voting Machines?

By Stuart Rothenberg

What do voters want — Members of Congress who approach every issue as if it were an ideological litmus test that reflects the ultimate battle of good versus evil, or Members with the experiences and character to bring less rigid perspectives and problem-solving skills to almost any issue?

Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth’s primary challenge to Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) is an obvious test case, much as Ned Lamont’s challenge to Connecticut Sen. Joe Lieberman (ID) was in 2006.

Hayworth is running an issue-oriented, purely ideological challenge to McCain, arguing that the four-term Republican Senator’s voting record is wrong on taxes, bailouts, amnesty for illegal aliens, the federal marriage amendment, cap-and-trade, campaign finance and terrorism.

On his Web site, Hayworth, who is described as “the consistent conservative,” says that he would have voted differently than McCain on all these high-profile issues, as well as on the confirmation of Eric Holder as attorney general.

McCain, of course, calls himself a conservative and has a case to make.

McCain’s CQ Party Unity score for 2009 was 96 percent, the same score as Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.) and National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn (Texas). Even Hayworth isn’t likely to dismiss Cornyn and Sessions as moderates.

Admittedly, many votes are relatively noncontroversial, party-line votes, so a high party unity score doesn’t mean that a Member might not have defected from the party’s orthodoxy on a number of high-profile issues. And McCain’s party unity scores have been much lower: 93 percent in 2008, 76 percent in 2006, 86 percent in 2003 and 67 percent in 2001, for example.

But the Arizona Republican has the support of conservative darling Sarah Palin, and newly elected Sen. Scott Brown (R-Mass.), who has come to symbolize to many both the energy of the “tea party” movement and opposition to President Barack Obama, is traveling to Arizona on McCain’s behalf.

Even more important, McCain has spent years establishing a reputation for fiscal responsibility, particularly in his opposition to pork-barrel spending and the deficit. McCain voted in 2003 against final passage of the now-unpopular bill creating a new prescription drug benefit, calling it fiscally irresponsible. Hayworth supported passage of that legislation.

McCain’s record on spending is sure to resonate with Republican voters in Arizona. And this year, fiscal restraint will be a huge issue with GOP primary voters.

Of course, it’s also true that McCain is not as conservative as Hayworth.

McCain’s association with Sen. Russ Feingold (D-Wis.) on campaign finance and with the late Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) on immigration reform sends some conservatives into a frenzy, as has his vocal opposition to “enhanced” interrogation techniques.

Hayworth’s 2004 scores (to pick a year when both Republicans were in Congress) from the AFL-CIO and the liberal Americans for Democratic Action, for example, were much lower than McCain’s, and Hayworth’s ratings that year from the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the American Conservative Union were much higher than McCain’s.

Issues are, of course, extremely important to voters. And most people would say that it’s far better that people judge candidates on their positions on issues rather than their looks or their TV ads.

But don’t many voters want Members of Congress to bring something more to their job than merely a list of issue positions? In fact, to many voters, the person matters.

Hayworth’s Web site describes him as “a radio and television personality, business management consultant, and public policy advocate” who served in Congress. It notes that he attended North Carolina State University on a football scholarship.

McCain, on the other hand, graduated from the U. S. Naval Academy and became a Navy aviator. He was taken prisoner by the North Vietnamese in 1967 and was tortured while being held in the notorious “Hanoi Hilton.”

McCain was elected to Congress in 1982. Four years later, he was elected to the Senate, eventually chairing the Senate Commerce Committee.

Hayworth is a “personality.” McCain is a war hero and one-time Republican nominee for president.

Hayworth’s Web site notes that he is an Eagle Scout. McCain’s notes that he has been awarded the Silver Star, Bronze Star, Legion of Merit, Purple Heart and the Distinguished Flying Cross.

The comparison is pretty clear.

The question for Arizona Republicans, then, is whether McCain is conservative enough for them.

If they want an utterly predictable conservative, they’ll vote for Hayworth. If they want someone who is generally conservative but can be quirkily independent and thoughtful, who has had a full life and a broad range of international and domestic interests, and who understands that the legislative process takes some give and take, they will stick with McCain.

This column first appeared in Roll Call and CQPolitics.com on February 22, 2010. 2010 © Roll Call Inc. All rights reserved. Reprinted with permission.

Gallup Poll

February 22, 2010

President Barack Obama’s job approval rating is 49% in the latest Gallup Daily tracking update, identical to its average for the past week. His weekly average approval ratings have been highly stable for the last three months, ranging narrowly between 48% and 51% since mid-November.

Read more at GALLUP.com.

Rasmussen Reports

February 22, 2010

his lead over Governor Charlie Crist in the contest for Florida’s Republican Senate nomination.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely Republican Primary voters finds Rubio leading Crist by 18 points, 54% to 36%. Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, and seven percent are undecided.

Those figures reflect a five point increase in support for Rubio compared to a month ago. Support for Crist has changed little over the past month.

In December, the two GOP hopefuls were tied at 43% apiece. The new findings mark Rubio’s best showing to date and Crist’s worst. The good news for Crist is that Florida Republicans don’t pick their nominee until an August 24 primary.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Crist, an early favorite in the race, was the choice of the party establishment but angered conservatives when he was one of the few Republicans to embrace President Obama’s $787-billion economic stimulus plan. Rubio, initially a long-shot contender, was quickly embraced by the so-called Tea Party movement, and Crist’s support has been falling ever since. He was at 53% in August but fell to 49% in October. Since then, a number of prominent national conservatives have endorsed Rubio’s candidacy.

In the state’s general election content, both Rubio and Crist have large leads over likely Democratic nominee, Congressman Kendrick Meek. Rasmussen Reports will release new numbers on the overall Senate race tomorrow.

Rubio now carries male GOP voters by a two-to-one margin but break even with Crist among women. The governor also breaks even among moderate Republicans, but conservatives in the party favor his challenger now by more than 40 points.

It’s telling that Florida Republican Primary voters are now evenly divided over Crist’s performance as governor. Forty-eight percent (48%) approve of the job he is doing, down eight points from January, but 49% don’t approve. Those numbers included eight percent (8%) who strongly approve of how Crist is governing and 20% who strongly disapprove. Keep in mind that those figures are among Primary Voters in the Governor’s own political party.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of likely primary voters have a favorable view of Crist. This marks an eight-point drop from the previous survey. Sixteen percent (16%) now view him very favorably. Forty-four percent (44%) of Republican voters in the state now have an unfavorable view of the incumbent GOP governor, including 14% whose view is very unfavorable. Only two percent (2%) have no opinion of him.

By comparison, favorables for Rubio total 67% percent, including 34% who have a very favorable opinion of the Cuban-American politician. Only 15% view him unfavorably, including four percent (4%) with a very unfavorable opinion. But 18% still don’t know enough about him to have an opinion one way or the other.

Both men are vying to be the Republican nominee in this year’s race to fill the seat originally vacated by retiring GOP Senator Mel Martinez. Last August, Crist as governor named his chief of staff, George LeMiuex, to serve the remainder of Martinez’s term, but LeMieux is not running for a full term.

Rasmussen Reports also has recently surveyed Senate races in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Florida, Connecticut, Pennyslvania, Ohio, Oregon, Washington and Wisconsin. Most show a troubling political environment for the Democratic candidates.

Please sign up for the Rasmussen Reports daily e-mail update (it’s free) or follow us on Twitter or Facebook. Let us keep you up to date with the latest public opinion news.

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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Video: Discover Small Business Watch Remains Steady in February

Obama Lacks One Crucial Ingredient – Intuition: A Commentary By Michael Barone

Praise for In Search of Self Governance By Scott Rasmussen

Rothenberg Political Report

February 22, 2010

“New Print Edition: GOP to Gain 5-7 Senate Seats” from “The Rothenberg Political Report”

New Print Edition: GOP to Gain 5-7 Senate Seats

The February 19, 2010 print edition of the Rothenberg Political Report is on its way to subscribers. Here is a brief excerpt from this edition:

Senate Overview – The Lay of the Land

The likelihood of Democratic Senate gains evaporated over the summer and fall, and it is now the GOP that is headed for gains. Eight of the dozen most competitive Senate seats up this year are now held by Democrats, meaning that Republicans have plenty of opportunities for net gains. The retirements of Byron Dorgan and Evan Bayh, combined with Beau Biden’s decision not to run, has damaged Democratic prospects.

The possibility of a GOP blockbuster year has increased noticeably. It depends, at least in part, on Republicans holding onto all of their seats. A year ago, that looked almost impossible, but it is now quite possible. Primary contests could affect both parties’ prospects. Nasty, divisive primaries that produce weak or weakened nominees in Pennsylvania, Kentucky, Colorado, Nevada and/or Arkansas could have an impact on net GOP gains.

While events between now and November will affect the outlook for November, the GOP seems most likely to net 5-7 Senate seats, with a 8-seat gain certainly possible (but still short of the 10-seat gain the GOP would need for control). That means Democrats are likely to retain control of the Senate, but at a dramatically reduced level.

Subscribers to the print edition get a state-by-state analysis as well as recent polling in each race. The print edition of the Report comes out every two weeks. Subscribers get in-depth analysis of the most competitive races in the country, as well as updated House and Senate ratings, and coverage of the gubernatorial races nationwide. To subscribe, simply click on the Google checkout button on the website or send a check.

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Sunday shows that 22% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. That is the lowest level of strong approval yet recorded for this President.

Forty-one percent (41%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -19. The Approval Index has been lower only on one day during Barack Obama’s thirteen months in office (see trends). The previous low came on December 22 as the Senate was preparing to approve its version of the proposed health care legislation. The current lows come as the President is once again focusing attention on the health care legislation.

Currently, 39% of voters nationwide favor the health care plan proposed by the President and Congressional Democrats. Fifty-eight percent (58%) are opposed. Only 35% believe Congress should pass health care reform before the upcoming midterm elections anyway. Fifty-four percent (54%) say Congress should wait until voters select new congressional representatives in November.

If the proposed health care plan becomes law, 78% of voters expect it will cost more than projected. Voters overwhelmingly believe passage of the plan will increase the federal deficit and lead to middle-class tax hikes. Most of those with insurance fear that they could be forced to change their coverage if the health care legislation passes.

The Presidential Approval Index is calculated by subtracting the number who Strongly Disapprove from the number who Strongly Approve. It is updated daily at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for free daily e-mail update). Updates are also available on Twitter and Facebook.

Overall, 45% of voters say they at least somewhat approve of the President’s performance. Fifty-four percent (54%) disapprove.

In his new book, In Search of Self-Governance, Scott Rasmussen notes that while designing our system of government James Madison “recognized something that just about everybody in Washington tries to forget. The government does not run the country. It is one institution among many that makes a self-governing society work.”

The book has earned positive reviews from Larry Sabato, Joe Trippi, Bill Kristol, Pat Caddell and others. In Search of Self-Governance is available from Rasmussen Reports and at Amazon.com.

(More Below)

On the jobs front, 51% believe decisions made by business leaders to help their own businesses will do more for the economy than decisions made by the government. Just 33% think decisions by government officials will help more.

While some pundits are buzzing about the possibility of Republicans winning control of Congress this fall, just 43% of voters believe that switching control would produce a noticeable change. Perhaps this ambivalence is because 60% of voters think neither Republican political leaders nor Democratic political leaders have a good understanding of what is needed today.

In a detailed look at this fall’s House races, political analyst Isaac T. Wood estimates that Republicans will make significant gains but will not win majority control.

Rasmussen Reports has polled on 2010 Senate races in Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, Pennsylvania, California, Indiana, Wisconsin, Washington, Delaware, Florida, Illinois, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio, Oregon, Connecticut, Illinois, North Carolina and Iowa.

Rasmussen Reports has also released polls on the 2010 governor’s races in Arizona, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Massachusetts, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Carolina Wisconsin, and Texas.

Scott Rasmussen has recently had several columns published in the Wall Street Journal addressing how President Obama is losing independent voters , health care reform, the President’s approval ratings, and how Obama won the White House by campaigning like Ronald Reagan. If you’d like Scott to speak at your meeting, retreat, or conference, contact Premiere Speakers Bureau. You can also learn about his favorite place on earth or his time working with hockey legend Gordie Howe.

It is important to remember that the Rasmussen Reports job approval ratings are based upon a sample of likely voters. Some other firms base their approval ratings on samples of all adults. President Obama’s numbers are always several points higher in a poll of adults rather than likely voters. That’s because some of the President’s most enthusiastic supporters, such as young adults, are less likely to turn out to vote. It is also important to check the details of question wording when comparing approval ratings from different firms.

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Rasmussen Reports has been a pioneer in the use of automated telephone polling techniques, but many other firms still utilize their own operator-assisted technology (see methodology). Pollsters for Presidents Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have cited our “unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy.”

Data from the Washington Post confirms that Rasmussen Reports was well ahead of other media coverage on the Massachusetts Senate race. In the 2009 New Jersey Governor’s race, automated polls tended to be more accurate than operator-assisted polling techniques. On reviewing the state polling results from 2009, Mickey Kaus offered this assessment, “If you have a choice between Rasmussen and, say, the prestigious N.Y. Times, go with Rasmussen!”

During Election 2008, liberal blogger Nate Silver said that the Rasmussen tracking poll “would probably be the one I’d want with me on a desert island.”

In 2008, Obama won 53%-46% and our final poll showed Obama winning 52% to 46%. While we were pleased with the final result, Rasmussen Reports was especially pleased with the stability of our results. On every single day for the last six weeks of the campaign, our daily tracking showed Obama with a stable and solid lead attracting more than 50% of the vote.

An analysis by Pollster.com partner Charles Franklin “found that despite identically sized three-day samples, the Rasmussen daily tracking poll is less variable than Gallup.” During Election 2008, the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll was the least volatile of all those tracking the race.

We also have provided a summary of our 2008 state-by-state Presidential results for your review.

In 2004 George W. Bush received 50.7% of the vote while John Kerry earned 48.3%. Rasmussen Reports was the only firm to project both candidates’ totals within half a percentage point by projecting that Bush would win 50.2% to 48.5%. (see our 2004 results).

See also our 2008 state results for Senate and governor. See 2006 results for Senate and governor.

Pollster.com founder Mark Blumenthal noted that “independent analyses from the National Council on Public Polls, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, the Pew Research Center, the Wall Street Journal and FiveThirtyEight.com have all shown that the horse-race numbers produced by automated telephone surveys did at least as well as those from conventional live-interviewer surveys in predicting election outcomes.”

Daily tracking results are collected via telephone surveys of 500 likely voters per night and reported on a three-day rolling average basis. The margin of sampling error—for the full sample of 1,500 Likely Voters–is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Results are also compiled on a full-week basis and crosstabs for full-week results are available for Premium Members. Like all polling firms, Rasmussen Reports weights its data to reflect the population at large (see methodology).

Among other targets, Rasmussen Reports weights data by political party affiliation using a dynamic weighting process. While partisan affiliation is generally quite stable over time, there are a fair number of people who waver between allegiance to a particular party or independent status. Since the November 2008 election, the number of Democrats in the country has declined while the number of unaffiliated voters has grown.

Our baseline targets are established based upon separate survey interviews with a sample of adults nationwide completed during the preceding three months (a total of 45,000 interviews) and targets are updated monthly. Currently, the baseline targets for the adult population are 35.6% Democrats, 33.1% Republicans, and 31.2% unaffiliated. Likely voter samples typically show a slightly smaller advantage for the Democrats.

A review of last week’s key polls is posted each Saturday morning. Other stats on Obama are updated daily on the Rasmussen Reports Obama By the Numbers page. We also invite you to review other recent demographic highlights from the tracking polls. To get a sense of longer-term trends, check out our month-by-month review of the President’s numbers

Rasmussen Reports

February 20, 2010

51% Think Business Leaders Make Better Economic Decisions Than Government Officials

Saturday, February 20, 2010

Most Americans continue to have more confidence in the economic decisions of the business community than in those of government.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 51% of American adults believe decisions made by U.S. business leaders to help their own businesses grow will do more for the economy than decisions made by the government.

Thirty-three percent (33%) say decisions made by the government will do more to help the economy grow. Another 17% are not sure whose decisions are best.

These findings show little change from a survey conducted in early June of last year.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of men have more confidence in the economic decisions of U.S. business leaders. Women are evenly divided on the question.

Non-investors are similarly divided, while 61% of investors say decisions made by business leaders to help their own businesses will do more for the overall economy.

Adults making less than $20,000 annually support decisions made by the government more than those in higher income groups. But government workers themselves – by more than two-to-one – express greater confidence in the economic decisions of business leaders.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Democrats have more faith in the economic decisions made by government officials. Seventy percent (70%) of Republicans and the plurality (49%) of adults not affiliated with either major party think the decisions of business leaders will do more to help the economy.

In reacting to the nation’s current economic problems, 48% say what worries them more is that the federal government will do too much. Thirty-nine percent (39%) fear the government will not do enough.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of adults say it’s better for the economy for the government to stay out of the housing market, up eight points from September. Twenty-one percent (21%) believe the economy is helped more if taxpayers help subsidize new home buying as is currently the case through government programs that began last year.

This week, President Obama declared that the $787-billion dollar economic stimulus plan he signed into law one year ago saved the country from a second Depression. Thirty-five percent (35%) of U.S. voters agree that the plan has helped the economy. Nearly as many (33%), however, believe the plan has hurt the economy.

The president says in order to pay down the record federal deficit, taxes may have to be raised on those earning less than $250,000 a year. But even if Congress and the president raise taxes to reduce the deficit, a majority (58%) say they are likely to spend the new tax money on new government programs.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of voters believe cutting the federal deficit in half is the budget priority Obama is least likely to achieve.

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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows that 23% of the nation’s voters Strongly Approve of the way that Barack Obama is performing his role as President. That matches the lowest level of strong approval yet recorded for this President. Forty percent (40%) Strongly Disapprove giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -17.

Tea Party Power to Solve the Debt Problem By Lawrence Kudlow

Gallup Poll

February 18, 2010

Americans’ perceptions of the United States’ national defense have shifted since last year, with more saying it is “not strong enough” (increasing from 37% to 45%) and fewer saying it is “about right” (decreasing from 54% to 46%).

Read more at GALLUP.com.

Gallup Poll

February 18, 2010

Americans’ self-reported average daily spending declined in January 2010 compared with December, and returned to roughly January 2009 levels across incomes, genders, regions, and ages.

Read more at GALLUP.com.

Rasmussen Reports

February 19, 2010

Election 2010: Wisconsin Senate

Wisconsin Senate: Feingold Leads Two Announced GOP Challengers

Thursday, February 18, 2010

Wisconsin incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold leads his two best-known announced Republican challengers for the U.S. Senate in the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of likely voters in the state.

Feingold leads real estate entrepreneur Terrence Wall 47% to 39%. Just six percent (6%) would choose some other candidate given that match-up, while seven percent (7%) are undecided.

Against another potential GOP opponent, businessman Dave Westlake, Feingold currently holds a 47% to 37% lead but again fails to receive 50% support. Six percent (6%) like another candidate, and 10% are undecided.

Any incumbent who attracts less than 50% support at this point in a campaign is considered potentially vulnerable.

Little has changed over the past month in the hypothetical match-up of Feingold and former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson, who has yet to decide if he’s officially running. Thompson holds a 48% to 43% edge over Feingold. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and five percent (5%) are undecided.

Thompson held nearly the same lead over Feingold in January, 47% to 43%.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Thompson, who served as governor of the state from 1987 to 2001 and as secretary of Health and Human Services in President George W. Bush’s first term, is being urged by Republicans to enter the race. Feingold is seeking a fourth six-year term in the Senate this November.

Feingold, who recently announced that he has a sizable financial war chest for the fall campaign, is the prohibitive favorite in the race, but like many Democratic incumbents, his numbers appear to be hurt by the prevailing negative national mood.

Rasmussen Reports also has recently surveyed Senate races in Arkansas, California, Colorado, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Florida, Connecticut, Pennyslvania, Ohio, Oregon and Washington. Most show a troubling political environment for the Democratic candidates.

Barack Obama carried Wisconsin with 56% of the vote in November 2008. Now 47% of Wisconsin voters approve of Obama’s job performance as president, with 27% who strongly approve. Fifty-two percent (52%) disapprove of the job Obama is doing, including 38% who strongly disapprove. This is roughly in line with his job approval ratings in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Forty-three percent (43%) of Wisconsin voters rate their own personal finances as good or excellent, while 16% say their finances are poor. But just 21% expect their finances to improve, while 40% think they will get worse.

Twenty-eight percent (28%) of Wisconsin voters share a very favorable opinion of Feingold, but 30% view him very unfavorably.

Thompson receives very favorable marks from 25% and very unfavorable reviews from 17%.

Wall is much less known at this point, with just five percent (5%) who view him very favorably and 11% who view him very unfavorably. Thirty-one percent (31%) of Wisconsin voters share no opinion of Westlake at this time.

For Westlake, very favorables total three percent (3%) and very unfavorables 12%.

At this point in a campaign, Rasmussen Reports considers the number of people with a strong opinion more significant than the total favorable/unfavorable numbers.

Forty-six percent (46%) of Wisconsin voters believe it is possible to balance the federal budget without raising taxes, but 32% disagree.

Forty-eight percent (48%) favor an across-the-board tax cut for all Americans. Thirty-four percent (34%) are opposed. Yet 60% think cutting taxes is a better way to create jobs than increased government spending. Only 15% say more government spending is a better job-creator.

Fifty-one percent (51%) say the United States and its allies are winning the war on terror, but 16% think the terrorists are winning.

Wisconsin voters are less closely divided than voters in most of the country over whether America is safer today than it was before the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks: 44% say yes; 34% say no.

Three-out-of-four (75%) voters in the state trust the judgment of the American people more than that of the country’s political leaders when it comes to important national issues.

Seventy-three percent (73%) believe the federal government has become a special interest group. Nearly the same number (72%) say government and big business often work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

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49% Favor Building New Nuclear Plants

Friday, February 19, 2010

President Obama this week announced an $8.3-billion government loan guarantee to build the first new nuclear plant in this country in over a quarter of a century.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 49% of Americans favor the building of new nuclear power plants. Twenty-seven percent (27%) are opposed to the idea, and 24% are not sure.

In monthly surveys through all of last year, support for building more nuclear plants ranged from a low of 47% to a high of 58%. Opposition ranged from 25% to 35%.

But 66% of adults are at least somewhat concerned about the safety of nuclear power plants, including 33% who are very concerned. Another 33% are not very or not at all concerned about nuclear plant safety.

Forty-two percent (42%), in fact, think the billions in loan guarantees to help build new nuclear plants would be better spent on the development of alternative new energy sources. Thirty-two percent (32%) disagree, and 26% more are not sure.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of men support the building of more nuclear plants, compared to just 38% of women.

Interestingly, adults over 40 who lived through the Three Mile Island and Chernobyl nuclear plant accidents are more supportive of new plants than those who are younger.

Sixty-two percent (62%) of investors think more nuclear plants are a good idea, but just 36% of non-investors agree. Those who work in the private sector favor building new plants more than government workers do.

Women are more strongly concerned about nuclear plant safety than men are. But the level of concern about safety is high among all demographic groups.

Those who work for the government are much more enthusiastic than those in the private workforce about developing alternative new energy sources. Forty-seven percent (47%) of women say the billions in loan guarantees for new nuclear power plants would be better spent on the development of alternative new energy sources, a view shared by just 36% of men.

Democrats and voters not affiliated with either of the major parties are slightly more supportive of the development of alternative new energy sources than Republicans are.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of all adults say they have followed recent news reports about the president and nuclear power plants. Forty-one percent (41%) say they have not followed those news reports closely, if at all.

In August 2008, when high gas prices were putting energy policy at the center of the presidential campaign, voters said electric or hybrid cars and nuclear power plants were more likely than solar or wind power to significantly reduce America’s dependence on foreign oil.

Sixty-one percent (61%) of adults now believe that finding new sources of energy is more important than reducing the amount of energy Americans consume. Thirty-two percent (32%) say energy conservation is more important. These findings have remained relatively consistent for months.

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Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

65% of Virginia Voters Approve of McDonnell So Far

44% Think Government Shouldn’t Hire Unemployed Americans (Video)

61% Say Government Should Keep Out of Housing Market

60% in California Say Better If Most Incumbents in State Legislature Are Defeated

Republican Renaissance?: GOP Will Gain Significantly, But Probably Remain in House Minority By Isaac T. Wood

“Missing Bush?” Why Republican Revisionism Won’t Sell By Howard Rich

Rasmussen Reports

February 18, 2010

Only 21% Say U.S. Government Has Consent of the Governed

Thursday, February 18, 2010

The founding document of the United States, the Declaration of Independence, states that governments derive “their just powers from the consent of the governed.” Today, however, just 21% of voters nationwide believe that the federal government enjoys the consent of the governed.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 61% disagree and say the government does not have the necessary consent. Eighteen percent (18%) of voters are not sure.

However, 63% of the Political Class think the government has the consent of the governed, but only six percent (6%) of those with Mainstream views agree.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of all voters now view the federal government as a special interest group, and 70% believe that the government and big business typically work together in ways that hurt consumers and investors.

That helps explain why 75% of voters are angry at the policies of the federal government, and 63% say it would be better for the country if most members of Congress are defeated this November. Just 27% believe their own representative in Congress is the best person for the job.

(Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Among voters under 40, 25% believe government has the consent of the governed. That compares to 19% of those ages 50 to 64 and 16% of the nation’s senior citizens.

Those who earn more than $100,000 a year are more narrowly divided on the question, but those with lower incomes overwhelming reject the notion that today’s government has the consent from which to derive its just authority. Those with the lowest incomes are the most skeptical.

Seventy-eight percent (78%) of Republicans say the government does not have the consent of the governed, and that view is shared by 65% of voters not affiliated with either of the major parties. A plurality of Democrats (44%) agrees, but 32% of those in President Obama’s party believe the government has the necessary consent.

From an ideological perspective, most moderate and conservative voters say the government lacks the consent of the governed. Liberals are evenly divided.

In his new book, In Search of Self-Governance, Scott Rasmussen observes that the American people are “united in the belief that our political system is broken, that politicians are corrupt, and that neither major political party has the answers.” He adds that “the gap between Americans who want to govern themselves and the politicians who want to rule over them may be as big today as the gap between the colonies and England during the 18th century.”

The book has earned positive reviews from Larry Sabato, Pat Caddell, Bill Kristol, Joe Trippi and others. In Search of Self-Governance is available from Rasmussen Reports and at Amazon.com.

Sixty percent (60%) of voters think that neither Republican political leaders nor Democratic political leaders have a good understanding of what is needed today. Thirty-five percent (35%) say Republicans and Democrats are so much alike that an entirely new political party is needed to represent the American people.

Nearly half of all voters believe that people randomly selected from the phone book could do as good a job as the current Congress.

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34% Favor Raising Taxes On Those Making More Than $100,000

Wednesday, February 17, 2010

Despite his campaign promise that taxes would not be raised on anyone making less than $250,000 a year, President Obama now says he may have to reconsider in order to help reduce the country’s record budget deficit.

But a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that just 34% of Americans think raising taxes on people who make more than $100,000 would be good for the economy. Forty-two percent (42%) believe tax hikes on those earning more than $100,000 would have a bad economic impact, while 14% say it would have no impact at all.

Americans were more evenly divided on the question in March of last year, when 37% saw a tax hike on Americans above this income level as bad for the economy and 35% saw it as a good thing.

Fifty-four percent (54%) of investors think raising taxes on those who earn more than $100,000 is a bad idea. Those who earn more than $60,000 per year are much more likely to think such tax hikes are bad for the economy.

Men are far more inclined than women to agree. Democrats are more likely than Republicans and unaffiliated voters to see tax increases on Americans who earn $100,000 and above as beneficial to the economy.

Want a free daily e-mail update? If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook.

Fifty-six percent (56%) of adults say if Congress and the president want to cut taxes to help stimulate the economy, an across-the-board tax cut for all Americans is a better way to go. Just 29% think it’s better if they offer targeted taxes for projects the government believes will help the economy. Fifteen percent (15%) are undecided.

Investors (61%) are more bullish on an across-the-board tax cut than non-investors (52%).

Sixty-five percent (65%) of Republicans and 68% of unaffiliateds prefer across-the-board-cuts to targeted taxes. Democrats are more closely divided, but a plurality (43%) like targeting taxes for projects the government thinks will help the economy.

A separate survey found that forty-six percent (46%) favor an across-the-board income tax cut for all Americans, but 35% are opposed.

Americans may support cutting taxes more because 58% believe if the government decided to raise taxes, it would put the new money towards new government programs rather than reducing the deficit.

Eighty-three percent (83%) say the size of the federal budget deficit is due more to the unwillingness of politicians to cut government spending than to the reluctance of taxpayers to pay more in taxes.

Most Americans also favor a law that would limit the amount of taxes paid to state, local and federal governments so that no one would pay more than 50% of their total income in taxes.

The president declared today that the $787-billion economic stimulus plan he signed into law one year ago saved the country from a second Depression, but just 35% of voters agree that the stimulus plan has helped the economy. Nearly as many (33%) believe it has hurt the economy. Twenty-six percent (26%) say it has had no impact at all.

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35% Say Stimulus Has Helped Economy, 33% Say It Has Hurt

28% Say U.S. Heading In Right Direction

Oregon Senate: Wyden 49%, Huffman 35%

Daily Presidential Tracking Poll

Only 24% Say Obama Likely To Achieve Health Care Reform (Video)

Praise for In Search of Self Governance By Scott Rasmussen

Republican Talk of the ‘Sensible Middle’ Makes No Sense By Froma Harrop

The Winter of Global Warming By Debra J. Saunders

The GOP’s Mixed Medicare Message By Joe Conason